Heat pump vs gas furnace, side by side
Pick the heat pump if you want cooling, plan to stay, and can use the conversion rebates (PSE pays $3,000–$4,000 to leave gas). Pick the furnace if upfront budget rules, your panel is tight, or you're replacing a furnace young enough that dual-fuel makes more sense than scrapping it.
| Dimension | Cold-climate heat pump | High-efficiency gas furnace |
|---|---|---|
| What it does | Heats AND cools with one system | Heats only — AC is a separate project |
| Typical Seattle install range | $8,000–$16,000 (ducted) | $4,000–$9,000 |
| Utility rebates | SCL $300–$600 instant · PSE $1,500–$4,000 conversions | None |
| Operating exposure | Electric rates (SCL +5.4%/yr 2025–26) | Gas rates (PSE ~+9.4% in 2025) |
| Cold-snap behavior | Full capacity at 5°F on cold-climate units | Unbothered — combustion heat |
| Typical lifespan | 12–15 years (works year-round) | 15–20 years (works half the year) |
| Panel implications | Needs 240V capacity — check older panels | None in most homes |
Cold-climate heat pump
Choose the heat pump when…
You want summer cooling anyway, you'll own the home long enough for efficiency plus rebates to pay the premium, and your electrical panel has (or will get) capacity. Oil and electric-resistance homes have the strongest case of all — their conversion savings run ~40–60% of heating spend per DOE and City of Seattle figures. Seattle's long mild heating season multiplies every efficiency point, and a single outdoor unit replacing both furnace and AC simplifies maintenance for the next 12–15 years. PSE's gas-conversion rebate ($3,000–$4,000) is the largest single incentive in the market — it only opens at replacement time, which is why deferring the heat pump decision while replacing other equipment forgoes real money.
High-efficiency gas furnace
Choose the furnace when…
The budget is the constraint, you genuinely don't want cooling, or your existing furnace situation makes a clean swap the pragmatic move. A modern 90%+ AFUE unit is a real upgrade over an 80% relic — just know you're declining the rebate window that only opens at replacement time. If your furnace is under ten years and your ducts test sound, a condensing gas replacement is a defensible stopgap while you watch gas-rate trajectory and plan electrification for the next cycle. Dual-fuel is the middle path when the furnace is too good to scrap: heat pump primary, gas backup, PSE hybrid rebate ($1,500/$2,400).
The Seattle-area numbers
Ducted heat pump installation
$8,000 – $16,000
All-electric heating + cooling using your existing ductwork
Sources: HVAC Project Cost — Seattle, WA (citing Angi 2026) (2026) · WattFax — 113 WA homeowner quotes (2026)
Gas furnace replacement
$4,000 – $9,000
New high-efficiency furnace, installed — equipment, labor, permit
Sources: Home Comfort Alliance Seattle furnace guide (2026) · HVAC Project Cost — Seattle, WA (2026)
These are typical Seattle-area market ranges compiled from published cost guides (Angi, HomeGuide, and Seattle-area 2025–2026 cost studies) — market context, not a quote from Glendale Heating & Air Conditioning. Your home's size, equipment, ductwork, electrical, and permits change the number. National figures are marked; Seattle-area labor typically runs above national averages.
Questions homeowners ask about this choice
Is there a middle option?
Yes — dual-fuel: a heat pump carries the season with your gas furnace as cold-snap backup, and PSE pays a hybrid rebate ($1,500/$2,400 income-qualified). It's the standard answer when a good furnace is too young to scrap.
Which is cheaper to run in Seattle?
Off oil or electric baseboard, the heat pump wins decisively (~40–60% of heating spend, per DOE/City of Seattle). Off a newer gas furnace, it ranges from break-even to moderate savings at current rates — the honest variable is the gas-vs-electric rate gap, which is why we model it from your actual bills.
Do heat pumps really handle Seattle winters?
Comfortably — cold-climate models hold 100% rated capacity at 5°F and operate far below that; Seattle design temperatures rarely test them. The objection dates from equipment two generations old.
What about homes with existing ductwork?
Ducted heat pumps slot onto sound duct systems the same way a furnace-plus-AC would — with the bonus that one outdoor unit handles both seasons. Test the ducts first (~15% leakage is WA's action threshold); sealing before install reclaims capacity the old furnace never delivered and narrows the efficiency gap versus ductless.
How long until the heat pump premium pays back?
Depends on what's being displaced and how long you'll stay. Off oil or electric resistance, rebate plus operating savings often recover the premium in a handful of years. Off a newer gas furnace, the math stretches — rebates and cooling value do more of the work. Our energy-savings explorer models it from your actual bills; the estimate visit refines the timeline with your equipment and envelope specifics.
Go deeper
Work the full decision guide
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Take action
Heat pump installation
How we know this
Ranges from published Seattle-area cost studies (Angi, HomeGuide 2025–26); rebate terms verified July 2026 (seattle.gov, pse.com); rate figures per SCL and WA UTC published schedules.
Reviewed by the Glendale Heating & Air Conditioning team · Last updated 2026-07-15
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